Today / Macedonia - First League / Vardar vs Tikves

Vardar vs Tikves Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Vardar

PPG 2.50 · HOME

7 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tikves

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.9%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-18.8%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.3%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-16.9%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 85.5% 1.17 -34.3%

Draw 23.2% 20.0% 5.00 +16.0%

Away win 20.6% 6.7% 15.00 +209.0%

Over 2.5 59.0% 62.5% 1.60 -5.6%

Over 3.5 38.6% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob57.8%

H 56% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vardar2.2

Tikves0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VARDAR · PPG 2.50

TIKVES · PPG 1.54

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=56.2%

Win probability 1X2

Vardar (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -34.3%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +16.0%

Tikves (A) 20.6%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +209.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vardar face Tikves in Macedonia - First League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vardar a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Tikves 21%, so Vardar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Vardar and 0.9 for Tikves (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vardar are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.54 for Tikves. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +209.0%. This match finished 7-0.

Vardar vs Tikves Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Macedonia - First League Predictions