Today / Brera Strumica vs Pelister

Brera Strumica vs Pelister Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Brera Strumica

PPG 1.08 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Pelister

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.08), Away POOR (0.79)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.1%0-25.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.0%1-112.5%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-18.5%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.1%3-13.9%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% — — —

Draw 32.6% — — —

Away win 29.5% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 26.8% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.8%

D 33% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brera Strumica1.4

Pelister1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BRERA STRUMICA · PPG 1.08

PELISTER · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.08), Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Brera Strumica (H) 37.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pelister (A) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Brera Strumica face Pelister on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brera Strumica a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Pelister 30%, so Brera Strumica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Brera Strumica and 1.2 for Pelister (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brera Strumica are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.79 for Pelister. This match finished 0-1.

Brera Strumica vs Pelister Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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