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BW Lohne vs Meppen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

BW Lohne

PPG 0.87 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Meppen

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-12.2%0-25.3%0-38.3%0-4+37.7%1 1-00.3%1-11.4%1-23.2%1-35.1%1-4+23.2%2 2-00.1%2-10.4%2-21.0%2-31.6%2-4+7.2%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.2%3-30.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.5% 10.6% 9.40 -57.7%

Draw 19.7% 19.6% 5.10 +0.5%

Away win 75.7% 80.0% 1.25 -5.4%

Over 2.5 79.5% 73.5% 1.36 +8.1%

Over 3.5 78.3% 54.1% 1.85 +44.9%

BTTS 52.1% 61.7% 1.62 -15.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)4.8 BTTS prob52.1%

A 76% / xG 0.6-4.8 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4✓ 9.9%

#2 0–5 9.4%

#3 0–3 8.3%

#4 1–4 6.1%

#5 1–5 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BW Lohne0.6

Meppen4.8

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 78.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BW LOHNE · PPG 0.87

MEPPEN · PPG 2.40

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

BW Lohne (H) 4.5%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV -57.7%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +0.5%

Meppen (A) 75.7%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

BW Lohne face Meppen in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BW Lohne a 5% chance, the draw 20% and Meppen 76%, so Meppen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for BW Lohne and 4.8 for Meppen (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BW Lohne are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 2.40 for Meppen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.9%. This match finished 0-4.

BW Lohne vs Meppen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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