Today / Hamilton A. W vs Motherwell W

Hamilton A. W vs Motherwell W Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Hamilton A. W

PPG 0.20 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Motherwell W

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-13.3%0-26.9%0-39.6%0-4+31.0%1 1-00.5%1-12.2%1-24.6%1-36.4%1-4+20.5%2 2-00.2%2-10.7%2-21.5%2-32.1%2-4+6.8%3 3-00.0%3-10.2%3-20.3%3-30.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.5% — — —

Draw 19.7% — — —

Away win 75.7% — — —

Over 2.5 79.5% — — —

Over 3.5 71.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)4.2 BTTS prob52.6%

A 76% / xG 0.7-4.2 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 10.0%

#2 0–3 9.6%

#3 0–5 8.4%

#4 0–2✓ 6.9%

#5 1–4 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamilton A. W0.7

Motherwell W4.2

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 71.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMILTON A. W · PPG 0.20

MOTHERWELL W · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.20) vs Away POOR (0.70)

Win probability 1X2

Hamilton A. W (H) 4.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Motherwell W (A) 75.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamilton A. W face Motherwell W on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamilton A. W a 5% chance, the draw 20% and Motherwell W 76%, so Motherwell W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Hamilton A. W and 4.2 for Motherwell W (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamilton A. W are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 0.70 for Motherwell W. This match finished 0-2.

Hamilton A. W vs Motherwell W Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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