OFK Beograd vs R. Surdulica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Serbia - Super Liga Championship Group - 33 Omladinski Stadion· Belgrade Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

OFK Beograd PPG 0.94

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

R. Surdulica PPG 0.94

Draw· +2.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

OFK Beograd face R. Surdulica in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OFK Beograd a 42% chance, the draw 32% and R. Surdulica 27%, so OFK Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for OFK Beograd and 1.1 for R. Surdulica (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OFK Beograd are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 0.94 for R. Surdulica. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.8%

Odds: 2.16 EV: -9.7%

Draw 31.6%

Odds: 3.25 EV: +2.7%

Away 26.5%

Odds: 3.15 EV: -16.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 23.9% Odds: 3.50 -16.4%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.73 -9.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

OFK Beograd

1.42

R. Surdulica

1.06

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+2.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5/Under 43%

BTTS/No 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 23% (13 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.94), Away POOR (0.94)