Today / Serbia - Super Liga / OFK Beograd vs R. Surdulica

OFK Beograd vs R. Surdulica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Championship Group - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

OFK Beograd

PPG 0.94 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

R. Surdulica

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.9%0-24.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.9%1-112.6%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.0%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.0%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 46.3% 2.16 -9.7%

Draw 31.6% 30.8% 3.25 +2.7%

Away win 26.5% 31.7% 3.15 -16.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 23.9% 28.6% 3.50 -16.4%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OFK Beograd1.4

R. Surdulica1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OFK BEOGRAD · PPG 0.94

R. SURDULICA · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.94), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

OFK Beograd (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -9.7%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +2.7%

R. Surdulica (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

OFK Beograd face R. Surdulica in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OFK Beograd a 42% chance, the draw 32% and R. Surdulica 27%, so OFK Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for OFK Beograd and 1.1 for R. Surdulica (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OFK Beograd are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 0.94 for R. Surdulica. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 1-1.

OFK Beograd vs R. Surdulica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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