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Vizela vs Sporting CP B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Vizela

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sporting CP B

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-110.7%0-26.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.1%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-18.0%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 52.4% 1.91 -27.8%

Draw 32.7% 29.9% 3.35 +9.6%

Away win 29.5% 26.7% 3.75 +10.6%

Over 2.5 50.0% 52.6% 1.90 -5.0%

Over 3.5 21.1% 32.3% 3.10 -34.6%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0✓ 11.7%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vizela1.2

Sporting CP B1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VIZELA · PPG 1.47

SPORTING CP B · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Vizela (H) 37.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -27.8%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +9.6%

Sporting CP B (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vizela face Sporting CP B in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vizela a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Sporting CP B 30%, so Vizela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Vizela and 1.1 for Sporting CP B (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vizela are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.33 for Sporting CP B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Vizela vs Sporting CP B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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