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Arsenal Tivat vs Petrovac Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Arsenal Tivat

PPG 1.53 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Petrovac

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-112.1%0-25.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.0%1-113.4%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.8%2-17.5%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.9%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 34.5% 2.90 +9.6%

Draw 32.7% 40.0% 2.50 -18.3%

Away win 29.5% 40.0% 2.50 -26.3%

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 15.6% — — —

BTTS 49.5% 47.6% 2.10 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.5%

D 33% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal Tivat1.1

Petrovac1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL TIVAT · PPG 1.53

PETROVAC · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal Tivat (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +9.6%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.3%

Petrovac (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal Tivat face Petrovac in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal Tivat a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Petrovac 30%, so Arsenal Tivat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Arsenal Tivat and 1.0 for Petrovac (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal Tivat are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.27 for Petrovac. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Arsenal Tivat vs Petrovac Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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