Arsenal Tivat vs Petrovac Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Montenegro - First League Regular Season - 31 Stadion u Parku· Tivat Sunday, April 26, 2026 12:00

Arsenal Tivat PPG 1.53

3-1 MISS

Petrovac PPG 1.27

Home· +9.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal Tivat face Petrovac in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal Tivat a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Petrovac 30%, so Arsenal Tivat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Arsenal Tivat and 1.0 for Petrovac (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal Tivat are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.27 for Petrovac. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.8%

Odds: 2.90 EV: +9.6%

Draw 32.7%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -18.3%

Away 29.5%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -26.3%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.4% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 15.6% Odds: — —

BTTS 49.5% Odds: 2.10 +4.0%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Arsenal Tivat

1.11

Petrovac

0.96

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -57.2%

Bet Hit 22% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away AVERAGE (1.27)