Today / Trastevere W vs Como W

Trastevere W vs Como W Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Trastevere W
PPG 0.36 · HOME
1 – 4
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY
Como W
PPG 2.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.18) vs Home POOR (0.36)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-17.5%0-213.0%0-315.0%0-4+31.5%1 1-00.8%1-12.8%1-24.8%1-35.5%1-4+11.6%2 2-00.1%2-10.5%2-20.9%2-31.0%2-4+2.1%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.1%3-30.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 4.4%
Draw 22.2%
Away win 73.4%
Over 2.5 60.5%
Over 3.5 53.3%
BTTS 39.6%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 73%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-4
xG (home)0.4 xG (away)3.5 BTTS prob39.6%

A 73% / xG 0.4-3.5 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 15.0%
#2 0–2 13.0%
#3 0–4 13.0%
#4 0–5 9.0%
#5 0–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trastevere W0.4
Como W3.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TRASTEVERE W · PPG 0.36

COMO W · PPG 2.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.18) vs Home POOR (0.36)

Win probability 1X2

Trastevere W (H) 4.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 22.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Como W (A) 73.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Trastevere W face Como W on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trastevere W a 4% chance, the draw 22% and Como W 73%, so Como W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Trastevere W and 3.5 for Como W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trastevere W are averaging 0.36 points per game versus 2.18 for Como W. This match finished 1-4.

PredictVantage

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