Today / Frosinone W vs San Marino A. W

Frosinone W vs San Marino A. W Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Frosinone W
PPG 1.09 · HOME
2 – 3
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
San Marino A. W
PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.9%0-25.2%0-32.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.2%1-110.9%1-28.2%1-34.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.6%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.0%3-14.5%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 37.6%
Draw 29.6%
Away win 32.9%
Over 2.5 59.0%
Over 3.5 37.1%
BTTS 58.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 2-3
xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%
#2 2–1 8.6%
#3 1–2 8.2%
#4 2–2 6.5%
#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frosinone W1.6
San Marino A. W1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FROSINONE W · PPG 1.09

SAN MARINO A. W · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value
45%
DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.09) vs Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Win probability 1X2

Frosinone W (H) 37.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 29.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
San Marino A. W (A) 32.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Frosinone W face San Marino A. W on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frosinone W a 38% chance, the draw 30% and San Marino A. W 33%, so Frosinone W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Frosinone W and 1.5 for San Marino A. W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frosinone W are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.45 for San Marino A. W. This match finished 2-3.

PredictVantage

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