Today / Freedom W vs Brescia W

Freedom W vs Brescia W Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Freedom W
PPG 1.73 · HOME
0 – 2
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
Brescia W
PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.0%0-23.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.8%1 1-04.1%1-17.9%1-27.5%1-34.7%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.0%2-17.7%2-27.3%2-34.6%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.6%3-15.0%3-24.8%3-33.0%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.8%4+-23.6%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.7%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 37.6%
Draw 29.6%
Away win 32.9%
Over 2.5 60.5%
Over 3.5 53.8%
BTTS 58.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-2
xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 2.0-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%
#2 2–1 7.7%
#3 1–2 7.5%
#4 2–2 7.3%
#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Freedom W2.0
Brescia W1.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 53.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FREEDOM W · PPG 1.73

BRESCIA W · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Freedom W (H) 37.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 29.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Brescia W (A) 32.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Freedom W face Brescia W on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Freedom W a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Brescia W 33%, so Freedom W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Freedom W and 1.9 for Brescia W (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Freedom W are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.27 for Brescia W. This match finished 0-2.

PredictVantage

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