Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone H / Real Normanna vs Citta di Fasano

Real Normanna vs Citta di Fasano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Real Normanna

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Citta di Fasano

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.6%0-113.0%0-24.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.9%1-112.6%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.2%2-16.1%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-12.0%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% — — —

Draw 33.6% — — —

Away win 27.5% — — —

Over 2.5 35.9% — — —

Over 3.5 8.3% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob39.6%

H 39% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.6%

#2 1–0 18.9%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 13.0%

#5 2–0✓ 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Normanna1.0

Citta di Fasano0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 8.3%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL NORMANNA · PPG 1.69

CITTA DI FASANO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Real Normanna (H) 38.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Citta di Fasano (A) 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Normanna face Citta di Fasano in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Normanna a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Citta di Fasano 28%, so Real Normanna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Real Normanna and 0.7 for Citta di Fasano (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Normanna are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.50 for Citta di Fasano. This match finished 2-0.

Real Normanna vs Citta di Fasano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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