Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone H / Pompei vs V. Francavilla

Pompei vs V. Francavilla Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Pompei

PPG 0.69 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

V. Francavilla

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-118.9%0-210.0%0-33.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.9%1-112.6%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-03.9%2-14.2%2-22.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.9%3-10.9%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% — — —

Draw 32.3% — — —

Away win 39.2% — — —

Over 2.5 37.4% — — —

Over 3.5 9.6% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.3%

A 39% / xG 0.7-1.1 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.9%

#2 0–1 18.9%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 0–2 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pompei0.7

V. Francavilla1.1

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 9.6%

Form & verdict PPG

POMPEI · PPG 0.69

V. FRANCAVILLA · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.69) vs Home POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Pompei (H) 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

V. Francavilla (A) 39.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pompei face V. Francavilla in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pompei a 28% chance, the draw 32% and V. Francavilla 39%, so V. Francavilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Pompei and 1.1 for V. Francavilla (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pompei are averaging 0.69 points per game versus 1.69 for V. Francavilla. This match finished 4-1.

Pompei vs V. Francavilla Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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