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Paganese vs Nola Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Paganese

PPG 1.75 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Nola

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-16.6%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.1%1-110.7%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-18.7%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.6%3-14.7%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-12.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% — — —

Draw 28.8% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 45.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.1% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 2–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 0–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paganese1.6

Nola0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PAGANESE · PPG 1.75

NOLA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Paganese (H) 50.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nola (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Paganese face Nola in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paganese a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Nola 21%, so Paganese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Paganese and 0.6 for Nola (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paganese are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Nola. This match finished 5-0.

Paganese vs Nola Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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