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Martina Calcio vs Heraclea Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Martina Calcio

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Heraclea

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=58.7%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-14.5%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.8%1-18.5%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.8%2-18.0%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.5%3-15.0%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-13.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 21.3% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.3%

H 59% / xG 1.9-0.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.8%

#2 1–0 17.8%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 3–0 10.5%

#5 1–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Martina Calcio1.9

Heraclea0.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MARTINA CALCIO · PPG 2.25

HERACLEA · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=58.7%

Win probability 1X2

Martina Calcio (H) 58.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Heraclea (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Martina Calcio face Heraclea in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Martina Calcio a 59% chance, the draw 27% and Heraclea 15%, so Martina Calcio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Martina Calcio and 0.5 for Heraclea (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Martina Calcio are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.31 for Heraclea. This match finished 2-1.

Martina Calcio vs Heraclea Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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