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Ferrandina vs Nardo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Ferrandina

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Nardo

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.1%0-119.5%0-29.0%0-32.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.3%1-112.3%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.2%2-13.9%2-21.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.9%3-10.8%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% — — —

Draw 34.6% — — —

Away win 35.0% — — —

Over 2.5 35.9% — — —

Over 3.5 7.3% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob39.6%

D 35% / xG 0.6-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.1%

#2 0–1 19.5%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 1–0✓ 13.3%

#5 0–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferrandina0.6

Nardo0.9

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 7.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRANDINA · PPG 1.50

NARDO · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Ferrandina (H) 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nardo (A) 35.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferrandina face Nardo in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferrandina a 30% chance, the draw 35% and Nardo 35%, so Nardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Ferrandina and 0.9 for Nardo (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferrandina are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.13 for Nardo. This match finished 1-0.

Ferrandina vs Nardo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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