Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone G / Valmontone vs S. Ogliastra

Valmontone vs S. Ogliastra Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Valmontone

PPG 1.19 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

S. Ogliastra

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.7%0-24.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.8%1-110.1%1-27.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.6%3-15.3%3-24.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.6%4+-22.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% — — —

Draw 29.1% — — —

Away win 28.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 41.2% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

H 42% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valmontone1.8

S. Ogliastra1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VALMONTONE · PPG 1.19

S. OGLIASTRA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Valmontone (H) 42.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

S. Ogliastra (A) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Valmontone face S. Ogliastra in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valmontone a 42% chance, the draw 29% and S. Ogliastra 29%, so Valmontone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Valmontone and 1.5 for S. Ogliastra (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valmontone are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.25 for S. Ogliastra. This match finished 0-1.

Valmontone vs S. Ogliastra Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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