Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone G / Trastevere vs CynthiAlbalonga

Trastevere vs CynthiAlbalonga Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:30

Trastevere

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

CynthiAlbalonga

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.8%0-22.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.9%1-17.1%1-25.1%1-32.4%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.1%3-17.3%3-25.2%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-18.2%4+-25.9%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 25.4% — — —

Over 2.5 60.6% — — —

Over 3.5 55.2% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

H 50% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trastevere2.5

CynthiAlbalonga1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 55.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TRASTEVERE · PPG 2.00

CYNTHIALBALONGA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=50.3%

Win probability 1X2

Trastevere (H) 50.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

CynthiAlbalonga (A) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Trastevere face CynthiAlbalonga in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trastevere a 50% chance, the draw 24% and CynthiAlbalonga 25%, so Trastevere are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Trastevere and 1.4 for CynthiAlbalonga (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trastevere are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.13 for CynthiAlbalonga. This match finished 3-0.

Trastevere vs CynthiAlbalonga Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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