Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone G / Scafatese vs USD Palmese

Scafatese vs USD Palmese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Scafatese

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

USD Palmese

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away GOOD (1.50) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-12.9%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.2%1-17.1%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-18.7%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-17.1%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.2%4+-17.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.0% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 12.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 37.3% — — —

BTTS 49.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.6%

H 65% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 3–0 11.2%

#3 1–0✓ 11.2%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 1–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Scafatese2.4

USD Palmese0.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SCAFATESE · PPG 2.50

USD PALMESE · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away GOOD (1.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Scafatese (H) 65.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

USD Palmese (A) 12.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Scafatese face USD Palmese in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Scafatese a 65% chance, the draw 22% and USD Palmese 13%, so Scafatese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Scafatese and 0.6 for USD Palmese (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Scafatese are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.50 for USD Palmese. This match finished 1-0.

Scafatese vs USD Palmese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone G Predictions