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Latte Dolce vs Cassino Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Latte Dolce

PPG 1.44 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cassino

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=55.9%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-15.1%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.0%1-19.8%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.4%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.6%3-16.0%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-14.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 16.8% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 26.7% — — —

BTTS 49.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.6%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.4%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Latte Dolce1.9

Cassino0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LATTE DOLCE · PPG 1.44

CASSINO · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=55.9%

Win probability 1X2

Latte Dolce (H) 55.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cassino (A) 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Latte Dolce face Cassino in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Latte Dolce a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Cassino 17%, so Latte Dolce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Latte Dolce and 0.7 for Cassino (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Latte Dolce are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.44 for Cassino. This match finished 4-2.

Latte Dolce vs Cassino Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone G Predictions