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Ischia vs Montespaccato Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Ischia

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Montespaccato

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.8%0-25.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.5%1-110.5%1-28.6%1-34.6%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.1%2-26.6%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.6%3-14.2%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% — — —

Draw 29.7% — — —

Away win 33.0% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.2% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ischia1.5

Montespaccato1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ISCHIA · PPG 1.25

MONTESPACCATO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ischia (H) 37.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Montespaccato (A) 33.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ischia face Montespaccato in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ischia a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Montespaccato 33%, so Ischia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ischia and 1.6 for Montespaccato (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ischia are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Montespaccato. This match finished 1-0.

Ischia vs Montespaccato Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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