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Tau Altopascio vs T. Traiana Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Tau Altopascio

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

T. Traiana

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-15.3%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.2%1-19.1%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.5%2-17.8%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.4%3-14.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-12.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 15.7% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 17.9% — — —

BTTS 42.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.7%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.2%

#2 2–0 16.5%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 1–1 9.1%

#5 3–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tau Altopascio1.7

T. Traiana0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TAU ALTOPASCIO · PPG 2.25

T. TRAIANA · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Win probability 1X2

Tau Altopascio (H) 56.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

T. Traiana (A) 15.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tau Altopascio face T. Traiana in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tau Altopascio a 57% chance, the draw 28% and T. Traiana 16%, so Tau Altopascio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tau Altopascio and 0.5 for T. Traiana (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tau Altopascio are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.31 for T. Traiana. This match finished 3-2.

Tau Altopascio vs T. Traiana Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone E Predictions