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Seravezza vs Foligno Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Seravezza

PPG 2.44 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Foligno

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=55.4%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-14.9%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-19.7%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.6%3-16.2%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-14.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 17.4% — — —

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.5% — — —

BTTS 52.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.5%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seravezza2.0

Foligno0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SERAVEZZA · PPG 2.44

FOLIGNO · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=55.4%

Win probability 1X2

Seravezza (H) 55.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Foligno (A) 17.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Seravezza face Foligno in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seravezza a 55% chance, the draw 27% and Foligno 17%, so Seravezza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Seravezza and 0.7 for Foligno (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seravezza are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.06 for Foligno. This match finished 0-0.

Seravezza vs Foligno Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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