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S. Trestina vs Prato Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

S. Trestina

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Prato

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-110.4%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.1%1-113.1%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-18.3%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% — — —

Draw 32.7% — — —

Away win 29.5% — — —

Over 2.5 47.8% — — —

Over 3.5 19.5% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

D 33% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Trestina1.3

Prato1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.5%

Form & verdict PPG

S. TRESTINA · PPG 1.44

PRATO · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

S. Trestina (H) 37.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Prato (A) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Trestina face Prato in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Trestina a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Prato 30%, so S. Trestina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for S. Trestina and 1.0 for Prato (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Trestina are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.25 for Prato. This match finished 0-2.

S. Trestina vs Prato Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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