Today / Orvietana vs Vivi Altotevere

Orvietana vs Vivi Altotevere Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Orvietana

PPG 0.88 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vivi Altotevere

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.88) > Away POOR (0.38)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-15.8%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.7%1-19.1%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.8%2-17.0%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.7%3-13.6%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-12.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 15.7% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 13.7% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob39.6%

H 57% / xG 1.6-0.4 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.7%

#2 2–0 16.8%

#3 0–0 14.0%

#4 1–1 9.1%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orvietana1.6

Vivi Altotevere0.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORVIETANA · PPG 0.88

VIVI ALTOTEVERE · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.88) > Away POOR (0.38)

Win probability 1X2

Orvietana (H) 56.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vivi Altotevere (A) 15.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Orvietana face Vivi Altotevere on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orvietana a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Vivi Altotevere 16%, so Orvietana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Orvietana and 0.4 for Vivi Altotevere (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orvietana are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.38 for Vivi Altotevere. This match finished 3-2.

Orvietana vs Vivi Altotevere Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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