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Treviso vs Este Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Treviso

PPG 2.13 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Este

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.1%0-17.7%0-22.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.8%1-110.7%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-17.4%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.6%3-13.4%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-11.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% — — —

Draw 31.8% — — —

Away win 20.9% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 12.4% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.6%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.8%

#2 0–0 15.1%

#3 2–0 14.3%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treviso1.4

Este0.5

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TREVISO · PPG 2.13

ESTE · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Treviso (H) 47.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Este (A) 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Treviso face Este in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treviso a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Este 21%, so Treviso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Treviso and 0.5 for Este (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treviso are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.38 for Este. This match finished 1-2.

Treviso vs Este Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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