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Obermais vs Conegliano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Obermais

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Conegliano

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.9%0-115.6%0-27.7%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.6%1-113.4%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.8%2-15.7%2-22.8%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.7%3-11.6%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% — — —

Draw 32.1% — — —

Away win 32.5% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 11.5% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.5%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.9%

#2 1–1✓ 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.6%

#4 1–0 13.6%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Obermais0.9

Conegliano1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OBERMAIS · PPG 1.50

CONEGLIANO · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Obermais (H) 35.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Conegliano (A) 32.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Obermais face Conegliano in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Obermais a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Conegliano 33%, so Obermais are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Obermais and 1.0 for Conegliano (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Obermais are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.19 for Conegliano. This match finished 1-1.

Obermais vs Conegliano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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