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Cjarlins Muzane vs San Luigi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Cjarlins Muzane

PPG 1.81 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

San Luigi

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-15.7%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.9%1-110.1%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-19.0%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-15.3%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-13.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% — — —

Draw 29.0% — — —

Away win 17.8% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.5% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 2–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cjarlins Muzane1.8

San Luigi0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CJARLINS MUZANE · PPG 1.81

SAN LUIGI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Cjarlins Muzane (H) 53.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

San Luigi (A) 17.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cjarlins Muzane face San Luigi in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cjarlins Muzane a 53% chance, the draw 29% and San Luigi 18%, so Cjarlins Muzane are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cjarlins Muzane and 0.6 for San Luigi (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cjarlins Muzane are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.00 for San Luigi. This match finished 4-2.

Cjarlins Muzane vs San Luigi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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