Today / Leon vs Chievo

Leon vs Chievo Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Leon

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chievo

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.81)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.6%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.3%1-112.5%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.1%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.3%3-14.4%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% — — —

Draw 30.2% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 23.6% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leon1.5

Chievo1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEON · PPG 1.50

CHIEVO · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Leon (H) 45.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chievo (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Leon face Chievo on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leon a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Chievo 25%, so Leon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Leon and 1.0 for Chievo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leon are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.81 for Chievo. This match finished 2-2.

Leon vs Chievo Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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