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Sanremese vs Club Milano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Sanremese

PPG 1.31 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Club Milano

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-16.7%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.0%1-111.0%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.0%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.2%3-14.9%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-12.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 20.5% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.0%

#2 2–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sanremese1.6

Club Milano0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SANREMESE · PPG 1.31

CLUB MILANO · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Sanremese (H) 49.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Club Milano (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sanremese face Club Milano in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sanremese a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Club Milano 22%, so Sanremese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sanremese and 0.7 for Club Milano (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sanremese are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.94 for Club Milano. This match finished 1-0.

Sanremese vs Club Milano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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