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Citta di Varese vs Saluzzo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Citta di Varese

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Saluzzo

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.1%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.9%1-111.4%1-27.3%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.2%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.9%3-15.0%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% — — —

Draw 29.1% — — —

Away win 28.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 32.9% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Citta di Varese1.6

Saluzzo1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CITTA DI VARESE · PPG 1.56

SALUZZO · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Citta di Varese (H) 42.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Saluzzo (A) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Citta di Varese face Saluzzo in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Citta di Varese a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Saluzzo 29%, so Citta di Varese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Citta di Varese and 1.3 for Saluzzo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Citta di Varese are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.38 for Saluzzo. This match finished 1-0.

Citta di Varese vs Saluzzo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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