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Chisola vs Lavagnese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Chisola

PPG 1.69 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Lavagnese

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-15.7%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.8%1-19.8%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.2%2-18.4%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.7%3-14.8%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-13.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 15.7% — — —

Over 2.5 47.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.4% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 2–0 15.2%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 1–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chisola1.7

Lavagnese0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHISOLA · PPG 1.69

LAVAGNESE · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Win probability 1X2

Chisola (H) 56.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lavagnese (A) 15.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chisola face Lavagnese in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chisola a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Lavagnese 16%, so Chisola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Chisola and 0.6 for Lavagnese (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chisola are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.75 for Lavagnese. This match finished 4-2.

Chisola vs Lavagnese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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