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Celle Varazze vs Sestri Levante Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Celle Varazze

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sestri Levante

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-110.2%0-28.1%0-34.3%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.4%1-111.8%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.3%2-16.8%2-25.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.7%3-12.6%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% — — —

Draw 30.3% — — —

Away win 40.4% — — —

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 29.8% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 6.4%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celle Varazze1.2

Sestri Levante1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CELLE VARAZZE · PPG 1.50

SESTRI LEVANTE · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Celle Varazze (H) 29.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sestri Levante (A) 40.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Celle Varazze face Sestri Levante in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celle Varazze a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Sestri Levante 40%, so Sestri Levante are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Celle Varazze and 1.6 for Sestri Levante (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celle Varazze are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.13 for Sestri Levante. This match finished 1-0.

Celle Varazze vs Sestri Levante Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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