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Cairese vs Valenzana Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Cairese

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Valenzana

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.1%0-113.0%0-24.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.2%1-112.5%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.2%2-16.0%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-11.9%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% — — —

Draw 33.6% — — —

Away win 27.5% — — —

Over 2.5 35.9% — — —

Over 3.5 7.9% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob39.6%

H 39% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.1%

#2 1–0 19.2%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 13.0%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cairese1.0

Valenzana0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 7.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CAIRESE · PPG 1.00

VALENZANA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Cairese (H) 38.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Valenzana (A) 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cairese face Valenzana in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cairese a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Valenzana 28%, so Cairese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Cairese and 0.6 for Valenzana (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cairese are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Valenzana. This match finished 4-0.

Cairese vs Valenzana Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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