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Werder Bremen B vs Hamburger SV B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Werder Bremen B

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hamburger SV B

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.8%0-25.9%0-34.9%0-4+5.4%1 1-02.9%1-17.1%1-28.7%1-37.2%1-4+7.9%2 2-02.1%2-15.2%2-26.4%2-35.3%2-4+5.8%3 3-01.0%3-12.6%3-23.1%3-32.6%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.6% 42.6% 2.35 -37.5%

Draw 23.2% 25.3% 3.95 -8.4%

Away win 50.2% 42.0% 2.38 +19.5%

Over 2.5 60.6% 71.4% 1.40 -15.2%

Over 3.5 55.3% 50.0% 2.00 +10.6%

BTTS 58.5% 73.5% 1.36 -20.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob58.5%

A 50% / xG 1.5-2.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.7%

#2 1–1✓ 7.1%

#3 1–3 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Werder Bremen B1.5

Hamburger SV B2.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 55.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WERDER BREMEN B · PPG 1.33

HAMBURGER SV B · PPG 1.47

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Werder Bremen B (H) 26.6%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -37.5%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.4%

Hamburger SV B (A) 50.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Werder Bremen B face Hamburger SV B in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Werder Bremen B a 27% chance, the draw 23% and Hamburger SV B 50%, so Hamburger SV B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Werder Bremen B and 2.5 for Hamburger SV B (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Werder Bremen B are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.47 for Hamburger SV B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Werder Bremen B vs Hamburger SV B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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