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HSC Hannover vs VfB Lubeck Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

HSC Hannover

PPG 0.87 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

VfB Lubeck

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.9% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.7%0-24.6%0-35.1%0-4+10.1%1 1-01.2%1-14.0%1-26.6%1-37.4%1-4+14.7%2 2-00.9%2-12.9%2-24.8%2-35.4%2-4+10.7%3 3-00.4%3-11.4%3-22.4%3-32.6%3-4+5.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.7%4+-21.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.8% 25.3% 3.95 -41.5%

Draw 22.3% 24.4% 4.10 -8.6%

Away win 62.9% 60.6% 1.65 +3.8%

Over 2.5 78.9% 72.5% 1.38 +8.9%

Over 3.5 70.9% 51.3% 1.95 +38.3%

BTTS 58.5% 71.4% 1.40 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob58.5%

A 63% / xG 1.5-3.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.4%

#2 1–2 6.6%

#3 1–4 6.3%

#4 2–3 5.4%

#5 0–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HSC Hannover1.5

VfB Lubeck3.4

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.9% · O3.5 PROB 70.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HSC HANNOVER · PPG 0.87

VFB LUBECK · PPG 1.20

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.87) vs Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

HSC Hannover (H) 14.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -41.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.6%

VfB Lubeck (A) 62.9%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

HSC Hannover face VfB Lubeck in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HSC Hannover a 15% chance, the draw 22% and VfB Lubeck 63%, so VfB Lubeck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for HSC Hannover and 3.4 for VfB Lubeck (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HSC Hannover are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.20 for VfB Lubeck. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +38.3%. This match finished 1-0.

HSC Hannover vs VfB Lubeck Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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