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Drochtersen.A. vs Altona Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Drochtersen.A.

PPG 2.60 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Altona

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+49.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.4%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.4%1-11.8%1-21.2%1-30.5%1-4+0.2%2 2-03.1%2-14.0%2-22.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-16.0%3-23.9%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-017.7%4+-123.1%4+-215.1%4+-36.6%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.2% 82.0% 1.22 -14.4%

Draw 20.6% 18.2% 5.50 +13.3%

Away win 9.2% 10.0% 10.00 -8.0%

Over 2.5 79.5% 75.2% 1.33 +5.7%

Over 3.5 82.8% 55.6% 1.80 +49.0%

BTTS 58.5% 62.5% 1.60 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)4.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 70% / xG 4.5-1.3 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.7%

#2 5–1 6.0%

#3 3–1✓ 6.0%

#4 4–0 5.2%

#5 5–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drochtersen.A.4.5

Altona1.3

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 82.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DROCHTERSEN.A. · PPG 2.60

ALTONA · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.60), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Drochtersen.A. (H) 70.2%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -14.4%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +13.3%

Altona (A) 9.2%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Drochtersen.A. face Altona in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drochtersen.A. a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Altona 9%, so Drochtersen.A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.5 for Drochtersen.A. and 1.3 for Altona (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drochtersen.A. are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.50 for Altona. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Drochtersen.A. vs Altona Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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