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Bremer SV vs Norderstedt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Bremer SV

PPG 1.71 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Norderstedt

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.5%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.4%1-19.3%1-25.8%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.3%3-16.7%3-24.2%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.6%4+-23.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 54.1% 1.85 -14.3%

Draw 28.3% 26.0% 3.85 +9.0%

Away win 25.4% 30.8% 3.25 -17.4%

Over 2.5 59.0% 66.7% 1.50 -11.5%

Over 3.5 42.8% 43.5% 2.30 -1.6%

BTTS 58.5% 69.0% 1.45 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 7.7%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bremer SV2.1

Norderstedt1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BREMER SV · PPG 1.71

NORDERSTEDT · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=46.3%

Win probability 1X2

Bremer SV (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.3%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +9.0%

Norderstedt (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bremer SV face Norderstedt in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bremer SV a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Norderstedt 25%, so Bremer SV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Bremer SV and 1.3 for Norderstedt (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bremer SV are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.80 for Norderstedt. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Bremer SV vs Norderstedt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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