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Ayutthaya Utd vs Prachuap Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Ayutthaya Utd

PPG 0.77 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Prachuap

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.7%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.2%1-112.4%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.8%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 34.7% 2.88 +9.7%

Draw 32.2% 31.3% 3.20 +3.0%

Away win 29.7% 43.5% 2.30 -31.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.8% 1.93 -2.5%

Over 3.5 27.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.9%

BTTS 57.9% 59.9% 1.67 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.9%

D 32% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ayutthaya Utd1.4

Prachuap1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AYUTTHAYA UTD · PPG 0.77

PRACHUAP · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.77), Away POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

Ayutthaya Utd (H) 38.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +9.7%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +3.0%

Prachuap (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -31.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ayutthaya Utd face Prachuap in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ayutthaya Utd a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Prachuap 30%, so Ayutthaya Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ayutthaya Utd and 1.2 for Prachuap (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ayutthaya Utd are averaging 0.77 points per game versus 0.92 for Prachuap. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Ayutthaya Utd vs Prachuap Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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