Today / Aberdeen W vs Montrose W

Aberdeen W vs Montrose W Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Aberdeen W

PPG 0.70 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Montrose W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.3%0-24.0%0-33.2%0-4+3.5%1 1-02.6%1-16.2%1-27.5%1-36.1%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.4%2-15.8%2-27.0%2-35.7%2-4+6.1%3 3-01.5%3-13.6%3-24.4%3-33.5%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.6%4+-23.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 40.4% — — —

Over 2.5 66.9% — — —

Over 3.5 62.1% — — —

BTTS 65.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob65.5%

A 40% / xG 1.9-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.5%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.1%

#5 2–1✓ 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aberdeen W1.9

Montrose W2.4

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 62.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ABERDEEN W · PPG 0.70

MONTROSE W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.70) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Aberdeen W (H) 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Montrose W (A) 40.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aberdeen W face Montrose W on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aberdeen W a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Montrose W 40%, so Montrose W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Aberdeen W and 2.4 for Montrose W (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aberdeen W are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.00 for Montrose W. This match finished 2-1.

Aberdeen W vs Montrose W Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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