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Decic vs Buducnost Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Decic

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Buducnost

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-16.8%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.7%1-111.4%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.6%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.4%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 32.3% 3.10 +44.1%

Draw 28.4% 37.0% 2.70 -23.3%

Away win 25.0% 43.5% 2.30 -42.5%

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Decic1.7

Buducnost0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DECIC · PPG 1.80

BUDUCNOST · PPG 1.07

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Decic (H) 46.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +44.1%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -23.3%

Buducnost (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -42.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Decic face Buducnost in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Decic a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Buducnost 25%, so Decic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Decic and 0.9 for Buducnost (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Decic are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.07 for Buducnost. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +44.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Decic vs Buducnost Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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