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Halstenbek-R. vs Buchholz Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Halstenbek-R.

PPG 0.54 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O3.5

Buchholz

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 7.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.3%0-21.0%0-32.0%0-4+22.1%1 1-00.1%1-10.4%1-21.3%1-32.8%1-4+30.3%2 2-00.0%2-10.3%2-20.9%2-31.9%2-4+20.7%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.4%3-30.9%3-4+9.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+4.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.5% — — —

Draw 19.7% — — —

Away win 75.7% — — —

Over 2.5 81.1% — — —

Over 3.5 94.5% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)6.2 BTTS prob58.5%

A 76% / xG 1.4-6.2 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–5 5.4%

#2 1–4 4.3%

#3 0–5 3.9%

#4 2–5 3.7%

#5 0–4 3.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Halstenbek-R.1.4

Buchholz6.2

COMBINED 7.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.1% · O3.5 PROB 94.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HALSTENBEK-R. · PPG 0.54

BUCHHOLZ · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.54) vs Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Halstenbek-R. (H) 4.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Buchholz (A) 75.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Halstenbek-R. face Buchholz in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Halstenbek-R. a 5% chance, the draw 20% and Buchholz 76%, so Buchholz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Halstenbek-R. and 6.2 for Buchholz (7.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-5. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Halstenbek-R. are averaging 0.54 points per game versus 0.87 for Buchholz. This match finished 0-1.

Halstenbek-R. vs Buchholz Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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