Today / RW Erfurt vs Eilenburg

RW Erfurt vs Eilenburg Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

RW Erfurt

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Eilenburg

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.73) vs P(Home)=63.2%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.9%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.3%1-15.7%1-22.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.2%2-18.3%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-18.2%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-013.8%4+-112.5%4+-25.6%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 15.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 53.7% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob58.5%

H 63% / xG 3.0-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.2%

#2 3–0 9.1%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RW Erfurt3.0

Eilenburg0.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 53.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RW ERFURT · PPG 1.73

EILENBURG · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.73) vs P(Home)=63.2%

Win probability 1X2

RW Erfurt (H) 63.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Eilenburg (A) 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

RW Erfurt face Eilenburg on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RW Erfurt a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Eilenburg 15%, so RW Erfurt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for RW Erfurt and 0.9 for Eilenburg (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RW Erfurt are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.40 for Eilenburg.

RW Erfurt vs Eilenburg Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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