Today / Chemie Leipzig vs H. Zehlendorf

Chemie Leipzig vs H. Zehlendorf Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Chemie Leipzig

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

H. Zehlendorf

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.27) vs P(Home)=54.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-14.9%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.9%1-19.7%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.4%3-16.3%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-14.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 18.7% — — —

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 29.1% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chemie Leipzig2.0

H. Zehlendorf0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHEMIE LEIPZIG · PPG 1.27

H. ZEHLENDORF · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.27) vs P(Home)=54.6%

Win probability 1X2

Chemie Leipzig (H) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

H. Zehlendorf (A) 18.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chemie Leipzig face H. Zehlendorf on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chemie Leipzig a 55% chance, the draw 27% and H. Zehlendorf 19%, so Chemie Leipzig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Chemie Leipzig and 0.8 for H. Zehlendorf (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chemie Leipzig are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.36 for H. Zehlendorf.

Chemie Leipzig vs H. Zehlendorf Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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