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Samtredia vs Merani Martvili Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Samtredia

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Merani Martvili

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+32.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.5%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.0%1-14.7%1-22.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.4%2-17.6%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.8%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-012.1%4+-114.3%4+-28.5%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.4% 43.5% 2.30 +43.5%

Draw 21.5% 30.3% 3.30 -29.0%

Away win 16.1% 38.2% 2.62 -57.8%

Over 2.5 68.1% 51.3% 1.95 +32.8%

Over 3.5 63.7% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 62% / xG 3.2-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 3–0 6.8%

#4 4–1 6.4%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samtredia3.2

Merani Martvili1.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 63.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMTREDIA · PPG 1.33

MERANI MARTVILI · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Samtredia (H) 62.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +43.5%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -29.0%

Merani Martvili (A) 16.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -57.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samtredia face Merani Martvili in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samtredia a 62% chance, the draw 22% and Merani Martvili 16%, so Samtredia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Samtredia and 1.2 for Merani Martvili (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samtredia are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.67 for Merani Martvili. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +43.5%. This match finished 1-4.

Samtredia vs Merani Martvili Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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