Today / Denmark - Superliga / Fredericia vs Odense BK

Fredericia vs Odense BK Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Relegation Group · Matchday 29 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Fredericia

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Odense BK

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.6%0-24.3%0-33.5%0-4+3.8%1 1-02.6%1-16.4%1-27.8%1-36.3%1-4+6.8%2 2-02.4%2-15.7%2-27.0%2-35.6%2-4+6.1%3 3-01.4%3-13.4%3-24.2%3-33.4%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.3%4+-22.8%4+-32.3%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 32.3% 3.10 -1.7%

Draw 23.8% 28.2% 3.55 -15.5%

Away win 44.5% 46.5% 2.15 -4.3%

Over 2.5 62.5% 61.7% 1.62 +1.3%

Over 3.5 60.8% 40.0% 2.50 +52.0%

BTTS 58.5% 67.6% 1.48 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob58.5%

A 44% / xG 1.8-2.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.8%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.3%

#5 2–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fredericia1.8

Odense BK2.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 60.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FREDERICIA · PPG 0.92

ODENSE BK · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.92), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Fredericia (H) 31.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -1.7%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -15.5%

Odense BK (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fredericia face Odense BK in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fredericia a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Odense BK 45%, so Odense BK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Fredericia and 2.4 for Odense BK (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fredericia are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 0.93 for Odense BK. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +52.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Fredericia vs Odense BK Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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