Today / Shamakhi vs Kapaz

Shamakhi vs Kapaz Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Shamakhi

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Kapaz

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-17.5%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-111.2%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-18.3%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.7%3-14.1%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% — — —

Draw 30.4% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 16.3% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 48% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.1%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 2–0✓ 13.5%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamakhi1.5

Kapaz0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMAKHI · PPG 1.00

KAPAZ · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Shamakhi (H) 47.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kapaz (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamakhi face Kapaz on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamakhi a 48% chance, the draw 30% and Kapaz 22%, so Shamakhi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Shamakhi and 0.6 for Kapaz (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamakhi are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.79 for Kapaz. This match finished 2-0.

Shamakhi vs Kapaz Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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