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Gandzasar vs Shirak Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Gandzasar

PPG 1.30 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Shirak

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-17.0%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.0%1-110.7%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-18.1%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.3%3-14.1%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 52.4% 1.91 -3.7%

Draw 28.9% 31.3% 3.20 -7.5%

Away win 20.7% 26.3% 3.80 -21.3%

Over 2.5 44.4% 45.5% 2.20 -2.3%

Over 3.5 15.7% 23.8% 4.20 -34.1%

BTTS 48.3% 51.8% 1.93 -6.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.3%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.0%

#2 2–0 14.4%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gandzasar1.5

Shirak0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GANDZASAR · PPG 1.30

SHIRAK · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.30) vs P(Home)=50.4%

Win probability 1X2

Gandzasar (H) 50.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -3.7%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.5%

Shirak (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gandzasar face Shirak in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gandzasar a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Shirak 21%, so Gandzasar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gandzasar and 0.6 for Shirak (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gandzasar are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.36 for Shirak. This match finished 3-2.

Gandzasar vs Shirak Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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