Kanchanaburi vs Buriram Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Thailand - Thai League 1 Regular Season - 28 Kanchanaburi Province Stadium· Kanchanaburi Sunday, April 26, 2026 11:30

Kanchanaburi PPG 1.17

1-3 HIT CS3

Buriram Utd PPG 2.42

Over3.5· +44.3% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Kanchanaburi face Buriram Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kanchanaburi a 15% chance, the draw 22% and Buriram Utd 64%, so Buriram Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Kanchanaburi and 3.2 for Buriram Utd (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kanchanaburi are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.42 for Buriram Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 14.8%

Odds: 6.75 EV: -0.1%

Draw 21.6%

Odds: 4.40 EV: -5.0%

Away 63.6%

Odds: 1.40 EV: -11.0%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.2% Odds: 1.57 -3.9%

Over 3.5 58.9% Odds: 2.45 +44.3%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.73 +1.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-3 ✘

2nd 0-2 ✘

3rd 1-3 ✔

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-4 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Kanchanaburi

0.90

Buriram Utd

3.22

Model SuggestionAway -11.0% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-11.0%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -38.1%

Bet Hit 38% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.42) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)