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Kanchanaburi vs Buriram Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:30

Kanchanaburi

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Buriram Utd

PPG 2.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLD

// Model verdict

Away 69% chance

Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-15.3%0-28.5%0-39.1%0-4+16.4%1 1-01.5%1-14.7%1-27.6%1-38.1%1-4+14.7%2 2-00.7%2-12.1%2-23.4%2-33.6%2-4+6.6%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-21.0%3-31.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.8% 14.8% 6.75 -0.1%

Draw 21.6% 22.7% 4.40 -5.0%

Away win 63.6% 71.4% 1.40 -11.0%

Over 2.5 61.2% 63.7% 1.57 -3.9%

Over 3.5 58.9% 40.8% 2.45 +44.3%

BTTS 58.5% 57.8% 1.73 +1.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -54.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob58.5%

A 64% / xG 0.9-3.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 9.1%

#2 0–2 8.5%

#3 1–3✓ 8.1%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 0–4 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kanchanaburi0.9

Buriram Utd3.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 58.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KANCHANABURI · PPG 1.17

BURIRAM UTD · PPG 2.42

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.42) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Kanchanaburi (H) 14.8%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV -0.1%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -5.0%

Buriram Utd (A) 63.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kanchanaburi face Buriram Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kanchanaburi a 15% chance, the draw 22% and Buriram Utd 64%, so Buriram Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Kanchanaburi and 3.2 for Buriram Utd (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kanchanaburi are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.42 for Buriram Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Kanchanaburi vs Buriram Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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