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Chonburi vs Muang Thong Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:30

Chonburi

PPG 1.46 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Muang Thong Utd

PPG 0.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 41.7% — a clear edge.

+42.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.4%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.3%1-18.0%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.6%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-17.9%4+-23.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 41.7% 2.40 +42.1%

Draw 24.4% 30.8% 3.25 -20.7%

Away win 16.4% 37.7% 2.65 -56.5%

Over 2.5 59.0% 59.9% 1.67 -1.5%

Over 3.5 40.8% 38.5% 2.60 +6.1%

BTTS 57.8% 66.7% 1.50 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob57.8%

H 59% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 3–0 8.7%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chonburi2.4

Muang Thong Utd0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHONBURI · PPG 1.46

MUANG THONG UTD · PPG 0.46

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.46) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

Chonburi (H) 59.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +42.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -20.7%

Muang Thong Utd (A) 16.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -56.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chonburi face Muang Thong Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chonburi a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Muang Thong Utd 16%, so Chonburi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Chonburi and 0.9 for Muang Thong Utd (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chonburi are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.46 for Muang Thong Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +42.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Chonburi vs Muang Thong Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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