Chonburi vs Muang Thong Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Thailand - Thai League 1 Regular Season - 28 IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium· Chonburi Sunday, April 26, 2026 11:30

Chonburi PPG 1.46

0-0 MISS

Muang Thong Utd PPG 0.46

Home· +42.1% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Chonburi face Muang Thong Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chonburi a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Muang Thong Utd 16%, so Chonburi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Chonburi and 0.9 for Muang Thong Utd (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chonburi are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.46 for Muang Thong Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +42.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.2%

Odds: 2.40 EV: +42.1%

Draw 24.4%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -20.7%

Away 16.4%

Odds: 2.65 EV: -56.5%

Model lean: Home

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.67 -1.5%

Over 3.5 40.8% Odds: 2.60 +6.1%

BTTS 57.8% Odds: 1.50 -13.3%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Chonburi

2.38

Muang Thong Utd

0.87

Model SuggestionHome +42.1% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -38.1%

Bet Hit 38% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.46) vs P(Home)=59.2%