Today / India - Indian Super League / Sporting Delhi vs Mohammedan

Sporting Delhi vs Mohammedan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:30

Sporting Delhi

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Mohammedan

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-11.1%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.9%1-13.5%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.3%2-15.4%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.7%3-15.6%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-026.0%4+-19.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.1% 69.4% 1.44 +5.3%

Draw 20.0% 26.3% 3.80 -24.0%

Away win 6.9% 16.7% 6.00 -58.6%

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 45.0% — — —

BTTS 39.6% 57.8% 1.73 -31.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob39.6%

H 73% / xG 3.1-0.4 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 15.7%

#2 2–0 15.3%

#3 4–0 12.1%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 5–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Delhi3.1

Mohammedan0.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING DELHI · PPG 2.00

MOHAMMEDAN · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.29) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Delhi (H) 73.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +5.3%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -24.0%

Mohammedan (A) 6.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -58.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Delhi face Mohammedan in India - Indian Super League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Delhi a 73% chance, the draw 20% and Mohammedan 7%, so Sporting Delhi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Sporting Delhi and 0.4 for Mohammedan (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Delhi are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.29 for Mohammedan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Sporting Delhi vs Mohammedan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Indian Super League Predictions